Is It Really Possible Prop 8 Could Win?

Until a few days ago, California’s proposed anti-gay constitutional amendment, Proposition 8, was lagging in the polls. Now we’re the underdog. What happened?
No on 8 campaign leaders convened an emergency conference call with LGBT reporters on Tuesday to get the word out: Prop 8 is now ahead by four points, and if we want to win on election day, we need to flood the No on 8 campaign with money.
“We’re being very badly outspent,” said pollster Celinda Lake, who joined campaign consultant Steve Smith and Equality California’s Geoff Kors on the call. Lake attributed Prop 8’s new hot streak to a biting TV ad that premiered last week -- and to the massive media buy for that ad made possible in part by the deep pockets of the Mormon Church. “Polling tells us that their ad is really breaking through... it’s not just a base ad. It’s convincing to voters across the broad spectrum,” she said.
“It’s gonna happen, whether you like it or not!” rasps San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom like a leering carnival barker in the pro-8 television spot. After that, a Prop 8 spokesman ticks off a list of dire consequences that California will suffer if Prop 8 goes down to defeat: “People sued over personal beliefs! Churches could lose their tax exemptions! Gay marriage taught in public schools!”
The ad’s histrionics would be funny. Except that so many voters seem to agree.
Talk with Prop 8 supporters and their anger is startling, even shocking.
All that emotion was front and center at a joint informational hearing held October 2 in Los Angeles by the state senate judiciary committee. Among the 200-odd attendees, the Yes on 8 contingent was slightly outnumbered. But they exemplified the outrage fueling the pro-8 campaign.